Liberal Talk Radio

Yesterday, I posted about the new National Intelligence Estimate Bush’s cronies trotted out just in time to muddle the ongoing Congressional discussions about an Iraq pullout. This report — created by the office of the Director of National Intelligence and entitled “The Terrorist Threat to the U.S. Homeland” — alleges that al Queda and the group calling itself al Queda’s affiliate in Iraq are working together to plot attacks in the U.S. mainland.

As the New York Times notes:

If the report is given an honest reading, it is a powerful rebuke to Mr. Bush’s approach to the war on terror. It vindicates those who say that the Iraq war is a distraction from the real fight against terrorism — a fight that is not going at all well.

The administration, however, seized on the report and, through bald political timing, tried to use it to dampen calls for an end to Mr. Bush’s catastrophic war. That required some particularly twisted logic. Ms. Townsend, for example, dismissed a reporter who asked whether the fact that Al Qaeda has regrouped in the area from which it planned the 9/11 attacks suggested that it was a mistake to divert American forces to Iraq. She said Al Qaeda headed by Osama bin Laden and the terrorists in Iraq that use the name Al Qaeda are the same.

In fact, we’ve seen no evidence of that, and none was in the intelligence report, at least the page and a half of conclusions released to the public.

And, the Washington Post reports that the military’s own assessments indicate that the fear-inspiring outcomes most discussed by the President — takeover of Iraq by al Queda or Iran — are both highly unlikely, if not impossible.

If U.S. combat forces withdraw from Iraq in the near future, three developments would be likely to unfold. Majority Shiites would drive Sunnis out of ethnically mixed areas west to Anbar province. Southern Iraq would erupt in civil war between Shiite groups. And the Kurdish north would solidify its borders and invite a U.S. troop presence there. In short, Iraq would effectively become three separate nations.

That was the conclusion reached in recent “war games” exercises conducted for the U.S. military by retired Marine Col. Gary Anderson. “I honestly don’t think it will be apocalyptic,” said Anderson, who has served in Iraq and now works for a major defense contractor. But “it will be ugly.”

Stay tuned.