Liberal Talk Radio

For all the saber-rattling towards Iran coming from Dick Cheney and his ilk in recent months, it’s worth putting the country in context. Fareed Zakaria does this in his excellent Newsweek cover story on post-Bush foreign policy:

No country has caused greater panic among American elites—of both parties. There are many influential voices arguing for military attacks on Tehran. But let’s keep in mind that this is a poorly run, internally divided oil tyranny that is increasingly antagonizing the rest of the world. It is insecure enough to have arrested Iranian-American civilians and warned its own scholars never to talk to foreigners at conferences abroad. These are not the signs of a healthy system. Iran is a serious and complex problem, but it is not Hitler’s Germany. Its total GDP is less than one third of America’s defense budget. A nuclear-armed North Korea has not been able to change the dynamics of global politics. A nuclear-armed Iran—and we are still far from that point—will not bring about the end of the world as long as we keep it tightly contained.

In Sunday’s presidential debate, a few Democrats argued that a nuclear-armed Iran was “unacceptable,” but this seemed like the kind of hard-lining that you do when you’re trying to get elected as a tough guy. Only Joe Biden’s remarks really hit it on the head:

BIDEN: Well, first of all, I would do away with the policy of regime change. What we’re saying to everybody in Iran is: Look, by the way, give up the one thing that keeps us from attacking you and after that we’re going to attack you, we’re going to take you down.

It’s a bizarre notion, number one.

Number two, understand how weak Iran is. They are not a year away or two years away. They are a decade away from being able to weaponize with exactly what the question was, if they put a nuclear weapon on top of a missile that can strike. They are far away from that.

Number three, in fact, we have to understand how weak that government is. They import almost all of their refined oil. By 2014, they are going to be importing their crude oil. There are much better ways if we had to get to the point of real sanctions of doing economic sanctions on them forcefully that way. But at the end of the day, if they posed a missile, stuck it on a pad, I’d take it out.

I hope this kind of thinking supplants the fearmongering and saber-rattling that’s been the hallmark of our Iran policy to date. Condi Rice’s recent efforts at engagement are certainly a step in the right direction.