Liberal Talk Radio

Hotline lets us know that 2006 census data could presage the reapportionment of House seats in 2010:

According to an analysis by Polidata, a political data consulting firm, seven states are all but certain to lose at least one seat: Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Another six states are all but certain to gain at least one seat: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Texas and Utah.

A few other interesting projections from Polidata: Texas could pick up as many as 4 congressional seats; New York and Ohio could lose 2 seats. California, for the first time since statehood, may not pick up any seats.

Polidata’s Clark Bensen also observes that Florida (currently with 25 seats) is now poised to replace New York (29 seats) as the third most populous state - and that both states might end up with 27-member delegations when the dust settles after reapportionment.

In other words, all the states that are losing seats are Democratic or Dem-leaning, while all the states gaining seats are Republican or GOP-leaning.

While this might sound bad for Democrats, two thoughts ameliorate my concerns:

One, when it’s time for the Presidential race, the 17-state game the Dems played in ‘00 and ‘04 might work in ‘08, but it’ll fall flat in ‘12. They need to widen the playing field. Fortunately, with inroads in the Mountain West and Upper South, that might be a possibility.

Two, the House seat changes are the result of people moving. I’d be interested to see if this makes the states more competitive. After all, if all those Massachusetts and New York residents are moving to Arizona and Florida, might they be taking their blue-state values with them? It’s been said that much of Colorado’s blue shift in recent years is due to all the California expats moving in. To wit:

Much of Florida’s surge in congressional clout has been carved directly out of New York’s hide; out-migration from New York to Florida has been a prime contributor to Florida’s growth. The 2000 Census revealed that, between 1995 and 2000 alone, 308,000 people moved from New York to Florida - the largest state-to-state flow in the U.S.

So I guess the question is, who’s moving? But beyond that, even if they’re Republicans, they’re probably more moderate, Northeastern Republicans who could be amenable to voting Democrat from time to time, should the right candidate show up and/or should the Republicans launch any more ill-planned, unprovoked wars.