A great piece, as per usual. Rumsfeld has wanted to transform the military for so long, you have to start to wonder when he’s going to finally get around to it.
Kaplan first tells us what the Pentagon means when it speaks of “transformation”:
First is the idea that advanced technology, super-accurate munitions, and strategies that emphasize maneuver more than mass allow the military to fight and win wars with far fewer soldiers. Second is the idea that, in the post-Cold War era, the United States may need to project power on short notice, to far-flung regions of the world, including some where we lack allies or bases.
Obviously the reality of the Iraq war and the lessons learned from it mostly contradict this. We need more troops, not fewer, to conduct what are known as “Phase IV” or post-conflict stability operations (i.e. peacekeeping), which Rumsfeld openly loathes.
Kaplan notes that the bulk of this next round of transformation is going to focus on all manner of new, cool, expensive toys. One can infer, because of the way that military budgets are handled, that the number and kind of toys will be less about what the military actually needs and more about what defense contractors provide jobs in the districts of which Congressmen. “Boots on the ground” don’t have a large constituency in Congress, at least until some smart contractor offers a legion of battle-droids that can be dropped into a conflict zone to negotiate reconstruction efforts and make peace among rival political factions. Call it the PetraeusBot 3000 and price it at $25 billion per brigade (when purchased with the lucrative maintenance contract, of course!). Build it at a new factory in Alabama and you’ll guarantee it all the Congressional votes it will ever need.
But I digress.
Kaplan’s larger point is that if Rumsfeld keeps using transformation as his reason for staying on the job, why hasn’t he started actually doing it yet? Unfortunately, if we lose the battle for Iraq, it will be in large part because Rummy was less interested in winning than he was in getting back to this pet project that never seems to get off the ground.
Will he do it in his last two years? I doubt it. Here’s why: his overarching concept is about fewer troops and a more high-tech, agile military that can enter and exit a theater rapidly. Furthermore, the Pentagon recently released a directive making, for the first time ever, post-conflict stability (Phase IV) a permanent mission of the U.S. Armed Forces. This conflicts more or less entirely with Rumsfeld’s transformation goals. So what are you sticking around for, Don?
More proof that he’s the Best. Bureaucrat. Ever.
